Armenia balances its strategy between seeking Western ties and maintaining vital, yet strained, relations with Iran amid regional geopolitical shifts.
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The relationship between Armenia and Iran is characterized by an “asymmetric anxiety,” with Armenia seeking new protections due to perceived abandonment, and Iran feeling encircled and fearing strategic marginalization. Turkey and Azerbaijan appear opportunistic on Armenia’s borders. Armenia is increasingly pursuing a balancing strategy, seeking guarantees from the US and EU following perceived security failures from Russia. Iran views the alignment towards the West, particularly infrastructure compatible with NATO along its northern border, with hostility. The situation is complicated by Iran’s deep internal crisis. The US-backed TRIPP initiative, designed for unimpeded transit through Armenia between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, is seen as an economic and stability driver by Armenia, Washington, and Baku, but Iran remains resistant to any US presence near its borders. Despite diplomatic efforts to maintain dialogue, tensions persist, highlighted by Iranian criticism of protests in Armenia. Economically, Armenia faces risks, including potential US sanctions and difficulties securing gas supplies, forcing it to balance strengthening its resilience without permanently damaging its vital, yet fragile, connection with Iran.
