Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus is waning due to regional shifts away from conflict focus and changes in Russian imperial priorities.
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Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus has diminished due to long-term regional shifts, not solely because of the invasion of Ukraine. Previously, the region’s foreign policies were heavily focused on conflict, which gave Russia significant leverage. Now, conflict is less of a primary foreign policy concern for the South Caucasus nations, and Russia is no longer seen as the sole or most credible security guarantor. Furthermore, Russia’s imperial focus under late Putinism has shifted; it now emphasizes the “Russian world” and geopolitical competition with the West, making the South Caucasus less central to its current imperial vision compared to its past. These two changes—the de-emphasis on conflict in regional foreign policy and the South Caucasus’s reduced importance to Russia’s current imperial narrative—explain the decline of Moscow’s role in the area.
