Russia’s potential victory in Ukraine and global shifts favor Moscow, challenging the West’s ability to deter aggression.
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The text summarizes the book “If Russia Won” by Carlo Masala, which presents a possible future scenario where Russia achieves victory in Ukraine, leading to Ukraine ceding 20% of its territory and abandoning NATO membership. In this scenario, Vladimir Putin resigns, and Russia plans further aggression against Estonia. The author argues that the international order favors Beijing, which aligns with Washington and Moscow, leaving Europe lagging due to populism. Masala warns that Russia remains the primary threat to European security and that hope for peace without deterrence is naive. He stresses that rewarding an aggressor only increases its appetite for further action. To deter Russia, Europe needs to improve its air defense, develop deep strike capabilities, enhance electronic warfare, and secure satellite ISR capabilities, areas where Europe is currently weak. The author notes that hybrid warfare is a constant threat, and while the focus is often on the East, the threat is continental. He also critiques the current geopolitical situation, pointing out that the old international order has dissolved, leading to a great power competition. For Europe, the path forward involves forming an alliance of medium powers to avoid being forced to choose between the US and China, and critically, that defending democracy requires constant, visible effort.
