Transnistria faces a severe economic crisis due to the loss of Russian gas, impacting public services and industry, with potential electoral fallout.
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The energy crisis in Transnistria, triggered by the halt of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, is escalating into a severe economic crisis, with potential repercussions for upcoming elections. Following the January energy crisis, Transnistria faces not only gas supply issues but also a significant budget deficit, struggling to pay public workers and pensioners. The separatist region declared a thirty-day economic state of emergency due to the general economic crisis and deteriorating socio-economic indicators caused by reduced natural gas supplies. Previously, Russia provided free gas, which funded the region’s expenses. After January 1, 2025, when Ukraine blocked the gas transit, the regime is forced to use local revenue to cover gas transit costs. Industrial activity has slowed significantly, with the Moldovan government denying claims of a crisis, stating that contractual gas volumes are being delivered without impediment. Furthermore, Moldova has stopped buying energy from the Cuciurgan plant, and a new high-voltage line connecting Moldova’s energy system to Romania is nearing completion. Data from Transnistria shows sharp declines in industrial production, foreign trade, and projections for GDP and inflation. The crisis is causing residents to seek employment in ChiÈ™inău, where wages are reportedly higher. The Moldovan government suggests the crisis was deliberately induced by the Kremlin to sabotage upcoming elections, while also noting that Moldova’s commitment to EU accession by 2030 discourages Russia from maintaining the separatist enclave.
