Balkan states face instability as US-led unipolarity fades into a complex, ambiguous multipolar order, forcing difficult foreign policy choices.
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Global shifts are challenging the foreign policy of Balkan states, as the former unipolar world order has eroded into a multipolar environment. This shift, accelerated by the US’s recalibration from guarantor to competitor, has weakened the established Euro-Atlantic framework. The resulting environment is characterized by fragmented, overlapping, and informal spheres of influence rather than clear rules. Balkan states are navigating this by choosing between clear alignment (like Kosovo and Albania with the US-NATO axis), strategic hedging (like Serbia balancing EU ties with Russian backing), or internal fragmentation (like Bosnia and Herzegovina). Foreign policy is becoming modular, requiring states to manage exposure across multiple patrons. Furthermore, the assumption that economic interdependence prevents conflict has failed, allowing parallel tracks of Chinese financing, Russian energy leverage, and EU market access to operate independently of political restraint. This multipolarity empowers elites, weakens institutions, and makes governance a strategic vulnerability. Ultimately, while the new order offers tactical agility, it punishes strategic incoherence, demanding that Western powers provide credible security commitments and revived enlargement pathways to prevent the Balkans from becoming a fault line.
