Analyzing Russia beyond Moscow reveals decolonization scenarios as alternatives to current consolidation or collapse models.
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Western analysis of Russia’s future is often too focused on Moscow, ignoring the crucial role of its diverse regions. The current global power shifts and internal strains within Russia make a return to the pre-conflict status quo impossible. Instead of focusing only on two undesirable outcomes—Moscow consolidation (leading to increased repression and dependence on China) or collapse (posing major global risks)—a broader view suggests alternative scenarios like genuine federalization or managed disintegration, which are decolonization possibilities. The article argues that Russia’s imperial structure is held together by several factors, including resource redistribution, fear of security services, a common identity, a shared future narrative, and elite career mobility; all of which are currently under strain. Historically, Russian crises have led to reconstitution, reform/concession, or dissolution. Given the current conditions, dissolution appears most likely. The authors conclude that treating Russia as a single entity based in Moscow is flawed; understanding its trajectory requires viewing the regions as independent political actors.
