Analyzes potential peace scenarios for Ukraine, outlining desirable, likely, and worst-case outcomes based on global and local trends.
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Discussions about a peace deal in Ukraine must move beyond simple notions of victory or defeat to consider various potential scenarios, requiring cooperation from Western allies for the best outcome. The authors analyze the conflict, arguing that Russia’s goal is the elimination of Ukrainian statehood and identity, while Ukraine aims to preserve it. They note that Russia’s strategy has failed to achieve its strategic goals over the past three years, while NATO has expanded.
Using a foresight tool, the analysis maps out a scenario space based on two key trends: the global adherence to the rule of law versus the rule of force, and Ukraine’s sovereignty (unrestricted, forcibly limited, or lost). Six scenarios emerge, with the most desirable being “Victory and sustainable peace” (global rule of law, unrestricted sovereignty), which requires Western consolidation and sanctions against Russia, leading to significant economic recovery for Ukraine.
Other scenarios include the “Rotten deal” (global rule of law, forcibly limited sovereignty), which presents variations like “Hard” (imposed capitulation), “Soft” (frozen conflict), and “Managed” (decentralized peace), all involving partial concessions to Russia. Less desirable scenarios include “Repeat of 1917-1921” (global rule of law, lost sovereignty) and “Bees defeat the bear” (global rule of force, unrestricted sovereignty), and the worst-case “Expanding land of terror” (global rule of force, lost sovereignty).
To achieve positive outcomes, the authors advise allies to provide long-term security guarantees, sustainable funding for defense and reconstruction, strengthen technological cooperation, increase sanctions on Russia, and counter Russian and Chinese propaganda globally.
