Upcoming Russian-Belarusian drills raise concerns about potential aggression against NATO neighbors, despite current low threat assessments.
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Upcoming Russian-Belarusian military exercises, “Zapad-2025,” are drawing significant international attention, similar to the 2022 exercises that preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While concerns about aggression against neighboring EU countries like Poland and Lithuania are raised, the text notes that past exercises, including “Zapad-2021,” have historically been viewed as rehearsals for NATO operations. Although the scale of exercises has varied since 2022, recent military activities, such as the alleged placement of tactical nuclear weapons and the focus on offensive capabilities, have been interpreted as pressure tactics against the West. Despite current low-level assessments from NATO officials suggesting no immediate threat, the authors warn that Russia will continue using integration mechanisms of the “Union State” to increase control over Belarus’s security sector. This raises the persistent risk of Russia potentially turning the eastern flank of NATO into a new flashpoint, necessitating that NATO members prepare for a potential conflict with Russia and an integrated Belarus.
