Enlargement benefits EU economies via trade and taxes, offsetting costs. Cohesion funds and agriculture face changes, but overall gains are projected.
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The accession of countries like Ukraine, the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Georgia to the EU presents both costs and opportunities. While initial concerns focus on the financial burden, experts suggest that focusing only on costs is a mistake, as potential benefits should also be considered. Economically, expanding the single market could boost production, job creation, and tax revenues in current member states, offsetting direct costs.
Bruegel’s analysis suggests that while admitting all nine candidate countries could cost current members €170 billion over seven years, this impact would be manageable for most. Some current members, like Bulgaria and Greece, are net beneficiaries, while net contributors like Italy would see increased required contributions.
The impact on cohesion policy would be significant, as the average GDP per capita would drop, potentially reclassifying many regions. However, the article notes that EU cohesion rules are likely to change, moving towards more flexible funding based on national plans.
Overall, enlargement offers substantial investment opportunities for EU companies, particularly in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, which could boost national tax revenues. While agricultural competition is a concern, transitional provisions are expected to manage the integration of agricultural products.
