International order shifts amid US instability, China’s rise, and EU challenges. Geopolitics is becoming transactional, moving away from post-1945 norms.
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The international order is shifting away from the post-1945 structure. The United States’ influence is waning as it struggles with its own democracy, while China emerges as a geopolitical rival whose model faces internal contradictions. The European Union is hampered by internal regulations and indecision.
The discussion highlights that the current global environment is becoming more transactional and less idealistic, resembling 19th-century great power competition. Regarding US politics, the speaker suggests that Donald Trump’s actions are less about unpredictable chaos and more about a consistent, albeit aggressive, unilateralism, driven by a desire to challenge established norms.
In terms of major conflicts, the war in Ukraine is unpredictable due to conflicting interests, and the situation in Gaza remains highly complex, with no clear path to a two-state solution. Regarding China, its ambition appears to be establishing a model that respects state sovereignty but rejects universal liberal values, aiming for a stable, orderly, yet non-challenging global structure.
Europe faces the challenge of maintaining its multinational space against a more Hobbesian world, requiring increased defense spending, though it remains dependent on the US for key defense systems. Overall, the consensus is that the era of historical certainty is over, demanding a difficult re-evaluation of global norms.
