Beyond the agreement: The realistic path to Ukrainian victory.

27 February 2026

Ukraine can win by leveraging innovation and resilience, supported by a committed coalition, while Russia faces systemic economic and political collapse.

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[This is an automatically generated summary, for reference only]

Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine because it has failed to achieve its strategic goals, has limited territorial gains, and is suffering from unsustainable military losses. While various end-scenarios exist, the most plausible outcome, termed “Bees Defeat the Bear,” relies on three factors: Ukrainian innovation and resilience, a coalition of willing states, and the inherent weaknesses of the Russian economy and political system. Ukraine’s strength lies in its decentralized, innovative, and rapidly learning military model, which, when combined with European investment and industrial scaling capacity, can create a world-leading military force. The necessary support comes not from universal unity but from a core group of states prioritizing self-defense. Russia’s economy is structurally self-exhausting, facing systemic risks, while its political leadership is trapped in a cycle of escalation that prevents de-escalation. Ultimately, Ukraine’s victory is inseparable from Europe’s security, requiring Europe to move beyond emergency aid to become a fully integrated, strategic, and united ally across all domains to prevent a larger conflict.


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© 2026 MOST - Media Organisations for Stronger Transnational Journalism


MOST is co-funded by the European Union.

The MOST – Media Organisations for Stronger Transnational Journalism – project aims to drive innovation within the foreign reporting sector and strengthen the resilience of non-profit and independent media in their coverage of European issues. By bringing together six specialised non-profit media outlets and one human rights-focused organisation, the project will establish a collaborative platform for the exchange of knowledge, resources, and content among the participating partners and other media outlets focused on foreign reporting or European topics.

Building on a decades-long commitment to specialised and non-profit reporting, the initiative seeks to enhance the visibility of Southeast and Eastern Europe within the European public sphere, while reinforcing journalistic practices to combat misinformation and disinformation.

Coordinated by OBCT, the hub will promote the exchange of best practices in creative business models, news production, and distribution processes. Additionally, the project will explore the potential of AI and collaboration, encouraging peer-to-peer learning among partners and engaging with the wider community of specialised digital non-profit media.