Poland’s security chief assesses Ukraine’s 2022 potential, warns of hybrid threats, and stresses the need for NATO’s eastern flank defense.
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Jacek Severa, former head of Poland’s Bureau of National Security, stated that Ukraine had a chance to defeat Russia in 2022, arguing that the West underestimated the Ukrainian army’s progress and the role of national identity. He noted that Russia’s efforts since the war’s start have focused on destabilizing Polish society through information warfare, particularly during border disputes. While he believes a full-scale ground invasion of Poland is unlikely, he warned that hybrid provocations, such as drone or artillery attacks from Belarus, and Russian airstrikes on NATO territory remain real escalation risks. He stressed that building adequate defensive capabilities across the eastern flank of NATO and the EU is essential to prevent conflict, and highlighted Ukraine’s intellectual property contribution to NATO’s capabilities.
